I would assign zero value to the incentive to get break-even. This guy Bender has had a good legal career in O&G and is probably worth $10m+ judging by his stock sales the past few years. I think there is no chance that getting break-even on a small stock purchase two years ago is going to affect his decision making. Career risk, lucrative directorships, future business opportunities and doing things right 'by the book' are all much, much more important.
That said, this could still be an interesting opportunity because the "lowball offer followed by a small bump" is an often used playbook because it is good for everybody. The directors can say they fought valiantly for a better price, Shell still strikes a bargain deal but can pretend there was a fair process and shareholders feel slightly less screwed.
I would assign zero value to the incentive to get break-even. This guy Bender has had a good legal career in O&G and is probably worth $10m+ judging by his stock sales the past few years. I think there is no chance that getting break-even on a small stock purchase two years ago is going to affect his decision making. Career risk, lucrative directorships, future business opportunities and doing things right 'by the book' are all much, much more important.
That said, this could still be an interesting opportunity because the "lowball offer followed by a small bump" is an often used playbook because it is good for everybody. The directors can say they fought valiantly for a better price, Shell still strikes a bargain deal but can pretend there was a fair process and shareholders feel slightly less screwed.
Clever idea
Ha! I bought calls like 2 weeks ago for just this scenario; didn't have any timing in mind so just got lucky. Sort of have to admire Shell's chutzpah.
Well mr Bender delivered! Nearly 20% return in 5 months.