I did not have a great 2022. Lost almost exactly 10%. Still slightly better than the market though. But considering that my blog stock picks significantly outperformed the market it is disappointing. I like to group my losses into bad luck and stupidity. And most of my bad performance was because of stupidity. The main one being keeping SBSAA as a 20% position. I should have pressured Interactive Brokers harder to get trading permission back.
Looks like the spread on OIIM has closed. Trying to do a little post mortem here, analyzing the risks that did not materialize...
I bought a position around $4.55 after the shareholder's approval at the start of Feb. Spread was still 7%+ after that.
What would be your best guess for this spread still existing? Seemed like a sure thing after shareholder's approval, but I suppose there was still some kind of chance the acquirers walk back on the deal / something crazy happens that blows up the deal?
And then yesterday the share price popped. I didn't see any official news, but saw a tweet that links to nasdaqtrader.com (don't even know if this site is legit :D). This mentions Feb 24 as anticipated last trading date & Feb 27 is suspension date.
The spread is still 1%. Can something still go wrong here? How long does it take to get the $ ? Maybe this uncertainty is why there is still a spread?
Anyway, yesterday I sold all but 1 share, so I can still find out how long it takes
Great to hear from you again. I'm personally happy to read about other subjects as well. Most people subscribe to a Substack to hear someone's voice.
I love your post about DRAM! It's very useful to understand how competition affects return on capital. More of it! :)
PS. STNE is somewhat similar to PAGS, maybe worth a look as well.
We always appreciate your articles. Your openness and honesty are refreshing!
Looks like the spread on OIIM has closed. Trying to do a little post mortem here, analyzing the risks that did not materialize...
I bought a position around $4.55 after the shareholder's approval at the start of Feb. Spread was still 7%+ after that.
What would be your best guess for this spread still existing? Seemed like a sure thing after shareholder's approval, but I suppose there was still some kind of chance the acquirers walk back on the deal / something crazy happens that blows up the deal?
And then yesterday the share price popped. I didn't see any official news, but saw a tweet that links to nasdaqtrader.com (don't even know if this site is legit :D). This mentions Feb 24 as anticipated last trading date & Feb 27 is suspension date.
The spread is still 1%. Can something still go wrong here? How long does it take to get the $ ? Maybe this uncertainty is why there is still a spread?
Anyway, yesterday I sold all but 1 share, so I can still find out how long it takes
Curious to know what you think of NMIH!
What do you think about Avaya at current price and everything happening?